Bitcoin Analysis – A Valuable Bounce Worth Buyers’ Attention

As always, since the recent highs in November 2021, the real question is whether this significant rebound will be technical for the twelfth time or will finally attract the attention of buyers to end this decline. At present, it is too early to comment on the definitive answer. Indeed, many factors need to be clarified.

The latest technical analyzes tend to see BTC prices retesting the levels abandoned during the FTX crash. The coming days/weeks will be interesting to watch. This would allow us to get an indication of the sentiment of both buyers and sellers.

In an easing context across all risk asset classes in early 2023, Let’s consider possible scenarios for Bitcoin after yesterday’s strong rebound.

Bitcoin in Weekly Units – Has Weinstein’s Phase 4 Finally Threatened?

Without last minute surprises, Bitcoin is likely to continue its bullish streak for the second week in a row. Especially since it’s not too far from $20,000 with signals that could worry sellers. Based on this hot observation, the receivers were able to raise their heads partially above the water.

First, prices are approaching the 30-week moving average (weekly 30MM), which itself is flat-sloping. Which would mean that Weinstein’s 4th round would soon be threatened. Second, technical indicators are regaining their dynamism by returning very close to their respective water lines. And of late, the intersection of the worn-out long descent line has reasserted itself.

Not only in the case of the continuation of the rebound BTC prices would trade at the same time aiming to collect $20,000 and the weekly MM30 at $26,000. But as a little icing on the cake for technical analysis fans, we would confirm two strong signals. It would be the first Weinstein’s transition from stage 4 to stage 1 with weekly MM30 to stabilize. while second, it will confirm bullish divergences on MACD and RSI.

If this scenario were to happen Since the last ATH in November 2021, the bitcoin bear market may be neutral at first. And with good reason, because there’s a lot of resistance to overcome for salespeople to admit defeat.

Bitcoin in Daily Units – Visible 200 Day Moving Average

Yesterday’s bullish move in Bitcoin prices, which took place in two phases: one during the Asian session, and the other after the release of the latest US inflation figures, had positive results. A close to the 200-day moving average in addition to $20,000. And in parallel, with the increase of daily units, technical indicators flared up fiercely.

Daily Bitcoin Price Analysis - January 13, 2023

If the MACD is finally above the zero line, The RSI took a step further, pushing itself well beyond the overbought zone. At first glance, many investors believe that the potential for a rebound is now limited. But in practice an overbought RSI can fuel short-term bullish sentiment. Provided that there is confirmation of technical signals. This is the case when BTC prices break through the $18,000 intermediate support.

In this current situation, witnessing an extension of the rebound beyond $20,000 and the daily 200-MA is not out of the question. Hoping that Bitcoin would wipe out its losses during the FTX crash. And as I write this article, it is clear that we are halfway there. It is imperative to close above $20,669 to close this unfortunate chapter of last November.

But the $22,000 resistance must be broken for buyers to really advance. In this case, we can expect an income of about $26,000. Otherwise, A pullback below the 2017 ATH will lead to an eventual rejection of prices below $18,000, which in turn will take us back to $16,000.i.e. in the first square for the last two months of 2022.

BTC – Need to get back to $26,000

The big bounce we’re seeing right now is likely to put pressure on late sellers around the $16,000 support rather than the more experienced ones. And as long as $20,000 remains a resistance, the process of neutralizing Bitcoin’s bear market since the last ATH in November 2021 will not be necessary.

Bitcoin and MM200 Weekly - January 13, 2023

On the other hand, if the 2017 ATH ever turns into support, the possibility of a rally towards $26,000 will gain ground. Especially since this scenario will be important on a psychological level. Because exactly BTC prices will close again at MM200 weekly. And a break above that moving average could possibly shift the balance of power between buyers and sellers.

But that being said, buyers will need major fundamental catalysts to prevent a reversal from becoming technical. Therefore investors should pay special attention to the bond market and not stocks. not only The rate hike in 2022 will not be as temporary as expected. However, this may signal the beginning of an inflationary period. This will change cards across all risk classes.

Therefore, a recovery in dollar-backed bond yields and the Fed’s determination to tighten monetary policy through 2023 will put sellers back in the saddle. in which case The scenario of the third wave of Bitcoin bearish correction will not remain a dead letter. Thus, it would have the merit of cleaning up the various segments surrounding the cryptocurrency industry.

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