The UEFA Champions League is the most prestigious cup competition in Europe. Featuring 32 of the continent’s best teams, the UEFA Champions League promises great individual performances, exciting clashes and plenty of drama.
Real Madrid, the most decorated team in the history of the competition last season, won the “old big ears” and celebrated their 14th Champions League victory. This season, Real Madrid has easily qualified for the 1/8 finals and is aiming to defend the European crown again. However, the task will not be easy as many rivals are licking their chops to dethrone them.
US website FiveThirtyEight used statistics to predict the likely winners of this season’s UEFA Champions League one month after the round of 16. We will see below who it is.
Without further ado, let’s find out the five statistical favorites to win the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League.
#5 Paris Saint-Germain – 6% chance
FiveThirtyEight has given French giants Paris Saint-Germain a 6% chance to win the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League. Given their form this season and the number of match-winners at their disposal, that tally could hit them hard.
Under Christophe Galtier, PSG have lost just once this season and their first defeat of the 2022-23 campaign came against Lens on Sunday 1 January. They have won 14 out of 17 matches in Ligue 1 (two draws, one defeat), once in the French Cup and six times in the Champions League group stage four times (two draws).
As for the most successful players, they have a giant trident formed by Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar. Together, they have scored 49 goals in all competitions this season.
PSG finished second in Group H after Benfica, who faced Bayern Munich in the 1/8 finals. If they can overcome this hurdle, they can hope to go all the way and win their first UEFA Champions League.
#4 Real Madrid – 7% chance
According to FiveThirtyEight, reigning champions Real Madrid have just a 7% chance of retaining their UEFA Champions League crown.
Having beaten PSG, Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool to win their 14th Champions League last season, Los Blancos have not fared well this season. They are currently three points behind leaders Barcelona in La Liga after 16 league matches and have also suffered defeat in the Champions League. Their only defeat in Group F was against RB Leipzig (3:2) on October 25. They have four wins and a draw in Group F.
In February and March, Los Blancos will meet last season’s runner-up Liverpool in the 1/8 finals. If they don’t mend their ways, the English giants could do very well for them ahead of the quarter-finals.
3rd Liverpool – 7% chance
The six-time European champion “Liverpool” has also been given a 7% chance to win the UEFA Champions League this season. Given their lackluster performance this season, they can hardly blame FiveThirtyEight for their lack of confidence.
In the 2022-23 Premier League season, the Merseysiders won only eight, lost five and drew four of their 17 matches. That lackluster passing saw the Premier League runners-up finish sixth in the table last season. On top of that, they are out of the EFL Cup and will need to beat Wolverhampton Wanderers in the fourth round of the FA Cup to progress.
In the Champions League, they failed to lead their groups, falling behind “Napoli” in Group A. They will face injury-hit Real Madrid in the round of 16 of the 2022-23 Champions League and will have to give it their all. active.
2nd Manchester City – 22% chance
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City have a 22% chance of winning their first Champions League at the end of the 2022-23 season, according to FiveThirtyEight. The City side were beaten by Real Madrid last season and will look to take it one step further this season by qualifying for the final.
“City”, which is currently in the second place of the Premier League table, has performed very successfully this season. Their passing was perfect, they created chances at will and thanks to Erling Haaland they scored for fun too.
The Mancunians have won four matches and drawn two to win Champions League Group G with 14 points, five ahead of second-placed Borussia Dortmund. Given the plethora of talented players at their disposal, City are heavily favored to win their Round of 16 clash with RB Leipzig.
#1 Bayern Munich – 25% chance
FiveThirtyEight estimates that Bayern Munich have a 25% chance of winning the UEFA Champions League this season. If the six-time European champions can win the trophy at the end of the season, they will equal AC Milan’s record seven titles.
Bayern Munich have had a difficult start to the Bundesliga season with three draws and one defeat in August and September. Since then, he has stabilized and established himself as one of the leaders in the title race. Julian Nagelsman’s team has collected 34 points from 15 matches and is 4 points ahead of the second-placed SC Freiburg.
Bayern won all six of their Group C matches to qualify as group winners, eight points behind second-placed Inter. Despite the skills shown in Group C, “Bayern” has to face PSG, one of the strongest teams in Europe, in the round of 16.
It will be interesting to see if they can use their European experience to beat the Parisians, as they did in the 2020 UEFA Champions League final (1-0 win).