Is Volatility Finally Returning to Bitcoin? Weekly Macro Update

2023: Wakeup Time for Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies?– The bitcoinin volatility for several months, but there are signs that the downward cycle may be over. Cryptocurrencies look green at the start of the week, is the trend changing? Could gold be the star asset of 2023? This is the weekly macro point!

Return of Volatility for Bitcoin?

For several months, Bitcoin a low volatilityas this graph shows:

Bitcoin Volatility Chart (3D)

It is clear from the graph that From February 2021, volatility decreases. Volatility can be framed between two extremes, which allows us to tell when volatility is too high (red terminal) and very weak (green terminal). When the volatility reaches the limit, we can assume that there will be a change in the trend (at the level of volatility). In summary, volatility is cyclical.

That’s why we celebrate it volatility is extremely low level and currently support. The downward cycle of volatility is probably over, and an upward cycle may follow. 2023 could be the year volatilewe can imagine that volatility will reach upper limit. However, this does not give any information about the direction of the price of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.

Bitcoin needs to change momentum to avoid another downward wave.
Bitcoin price against the dollar (3D)

Despite the bullish attempts of operators at the beginning of the week, Bitcoin is still in it downward trend. Indeed, the price is showing bearish and bearish peaks and has remained below the price. lower trend line It started at the ball in November 2021.

Buyers must buy a close above the price to change immediately $18,400. Attention, it will be necessary to overcome resistance is at $19,000and lower trend line, because it can reject the course. Bitcoin is far from recovering an interesting dynamic in this unit of time.

Also, buyers should keep bracket is $16,000because in a bearish situation, the price can reach the next strong support $13,500. Momentum is very strong, the RSI has not shown a low since June 2022.

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Avoid risk: gold continues to rise, dollar retreats

For several months now, we have observed the movement of capital. Capital seems to be leaving the dollar for gold. It is the same today.

The dollar is rejected at 105.5 points

There are dollars rate of riselevel is rejected again weekly resistance :

Dollar index pulls back to weekly resistance level.
Dollar Index Chart (3D)

The resistance 105.5 pointsand institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) currently blocks the course. Shows the wick that the course has left fever buyer side. Sellers have their hands in this safe haven. To try to find color in cryptocurrencies that are considered risky assets downward trend continues with dollars.

For this it will be necessary to break Weekly support at 102.5 points. Breaking this level will be new bear signal for dollars. In the case of a rebound, the price may be then tidy Between 102.5 points and 105.5 points. The fall of the dollar does not benefit cryptocurrencies at the moment, however gold attracts capital.

Gold rises, approaching weekly resistance at $1,970

Gold could have an interesting 2023. If the dollar were the safe haven asset of 2022, Could gold be this year’s safe haven asset? It shows firmness :

Gold is up and up 16% from the bottom.
The price of gold against the dollar (3D)

Since the lowest price 1615 dollarsgold rose 16%. That’s nothing for such a highly capitalized asset. If gold is sure to benefit from the dollar’s decline, it should rally quickly shorts reload area It is located between (0.618-0.786 fibonacci retracement). 1900 dollars and 1970 dollars. This field can resistance. Indeed, buyers at the bottom of the range will want take profitand this field is theoretically favorable for such decisions.

is an impulse firm, keeps writing higher and higher levels. As long as the RSI holds rising trend linebuyers’ hands are on the move.

The US market remains fragile

Like cryptocurrencies, the US market is also considered risk. Currently, this is an asset type not attractive.

The S&P 500 is at $3,900

The S&P 500 is struggling to move higher weekly resistance located in 3900 dollars :

The S&P 500 is fragile.
S&P 500 price against the dollar (3D)

The S&P 500 is too high fragilethe price is stuck below lower trend line Since the end of 2021. In addition, buyers are struggling to break through resistance is at $3,900. The bear scenario is the scenario realized by the red arrow, i.e. Weekly support at 3,700 $.

Ascension scenario can happen in rotation resistance is at $3,900 and some lower trend line. In this case, the price can be added next resistance at $4,150. directed in the direction of the impulse rise up, and goes in the direction of the bullish scenario. Indeed, despite the new lows posted in the price, the RSI is moving upwards. A rate of rise RSI can be built if it holds rising trend line. It will be necessary to get rid of the resistance zone 58 RSI to find the colors in this index.

NASDAQ on the brink?

NASDAQ is coming weekly support. A fall 10% index is quite possible:

NASDAQ may fall to $9,700 towards the next support.
NASDAQ price against the dollar (3D)

Like the S&P 500, the price is moving lower lower trend line. Also, institutional bias is on the negative side and can be reject in the near future of course. If so, the next remedy is now 9700 dollarsI mean 10% down.

On the other hand, if buyers can get themselves out of this zone and break it lower trend lineprice may arrive quickly resistance is at $12,100. Also, impulse decreasesis a sign of this variability it could happen quickly. Indeed, breaking out of a contraction often leads to volatility.

Bitcoin has been in a period of declining volatility for over a year. It appears that the cycle is coming to an end and a period of increased volatility may begin. Bitcoin needs to regain its bullish momentum to avoid another bearish wave. For this, you need to start with a close above $18,400. Gold continues to rise, up 16% from its lowest levels. Gold appears to be benefiting from a weaker dollar, and it may not be over. On the US market side, the price is still fragile, but the momentum is showing strength. Are salespeople starting to run out of energy? To find the colors, it will be necessary to change the dynamics of these indices.

If at the end of this article you are still not convinced of the vital importance of getting on the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency train, let us leave it to our good friends: nothing and no one will succeed! If you don’t, don’t wait any longer to prepare for the future. Run to register on Binancesave 10% on your trading fees by following this link (trade link).

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