Bitcoin on December 29, 2022 – A wake-up call for New Year’s Eve?
Is it really cyclical? The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is getting tighter and would be on the verge of further large-scale moves. Will the cryptocurrency record further declines or recover higher price levels by the end of the year? A few days before the annual shutdown, this trader shared his analysis of Bitcoin price for 2023.
Bitcoin Price Compression: Heading for Significant Ups or Downs?
Bitfinex price drops to $16,505 on Bitfinex today, December 29, 2022. Cryptocurrency It trades for $16,619 while writing this article. Markets currently have a doji right.
Every day the price of bitcoin increases squeezed, Trade between the Ichimoku cloud, which acts as resistance, and the $16,506 100-month exponential moving average, which acts as support.
As this resistance and support gradually approach the trader over the course of the day Daan Crypto Trades In particular, today he shared a chart to show the volatility of Bitcoin. At levels not seen since late 2020 “.
L’mean true range has reached the bottom and thus shows severe form of compression Like Bollinger Bands. Daan Crypto Trades has pointed to quite similar squeezes in the past on the chart, a situation that precedes large-scale moves.
If we analyze the chart above, it shows the current market pattern Similarities with October 2020with mean true range It was almost at the same level as today and the strong compression of the Bollinger Bands.
At that time there was this compression before the bull runthis pushed Bitcoin to an all-time high near $69,000.
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A maximum reduction of about 16% to maintain the structure of the 4-year cycle
Trader as the year approaches Rect Capital He shared various possible scenarios for the price of bitcoin for 2023. cryptocurrency four-year cycle.
It is 2022 in the chart second year of the current period. The second year is the lunar period that comes before and after one and two ascendant years respectively in previous periods.
Referring to candlesticks and past periods on the chart, trader Rekt Capital believes that Bitcoin alt With these bear markets in 2023 a wick below the annual opening levelwhich will then drive the price of the cryptocurrency to “the bottom”.
But in order for Bitcoin to effectively reproduce this four-year cycle pattern, Rekt Capital says that this bearish wick, and therefore bottom, must occur in 2023. Above $14,000 around.
This level corresponds to the closing level of the first year of the previous cycle (the second cycle on the chart) and acted as resistance during the last cycle. The chart below shows that the second period is below the second year candle, remained above the closing level of the first year of the bachelor’s degree.
Bitcoin’s bottom must remain above this $14,000 to maintain this cyclical structure. In other words, there should be no Bitcoin price Not to mention a drop of over 16% from its present level.
Bitcoin was recorded in 2015 and 2019 52% and 10% reduction before touching the bottom of bear markets relative to the previous year’s closing level (the second year of each cycle), respectively.
Will 2023 allow the bulls to take revenge and conquer $100,000?
Still based on candlesticks from past periods, 2023 could be “less volatile than others”. a well-deserved promotion It is possible according to Rekt Capital. Assuming 2023 closes in the green, how high could Bitcoin go then?
Bitcoin in 2015 and 2019, corresponding to the third year of the previous periods 234% and 316% rally according to. Bitcoin will then rally around its 234% rally from its current price $55,000 in 2023That’s about $46,000 above the 2022 launch price.
The latter currently acts as resistance for the current cycle, as $14,000 and $740 were resistances for the previous two periods.
With a 316% increase from its current price, Bitcoin will then rise to around $68,000it is now near an all-time high.
In these two cases, Bitcoin is not even close to $100,000. Another question traders and investors should ask themselves is the magnitude of these rallies: are rallies of 234% and 316% possible given the current macroeconomic environment, which does not favor riskier assets?
Thus, 2023 could be the year of sustained recovery in Bitcoin price. Other indicators also keep glimmers of hope for the bulls’ return, even if it’s not six figures (yet?) next year.
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