Bitcoin December 31, 2022 – 2022 Bear Run Highlights

The king of cryptophones returns to harsh reality! – I have the honor of performing the 2022 Bitcoin (BTC) price likely end market for Journal du Coin. And it’s clear that the bulls have lost their wings, with Satoshi Nakomoto’s digital currency losing almost three-quarters of its market capitalization. At the same time, we confirm the fourth bear run in its history, after 2011, 2014 and 2018. Even on this topic, a debate should begin among analysts.

In this sense, the latest technical analysis of the king of cryptocurrencies unfortunately points to signals in favor of the bears, despite the reduction of downward pressure in recent weeks. But on the other hand, current uncertainties in the financial markets still persist. With financial conditions in the US tightening at the fastest pace since the late 1950s, especially since the Fed has been able to continue monetary tightening despite the specter of recession. Which BTC won’t do for a trend reversal.

Instead of making predictions for 2023, let’s take a look at the highlights of the 2022 version of the Bitcoin bear to understand the market environment we’ve witnessed so far.

The first correction wave accompanied by shoulder-head-shoulder

After three big weekly candles in a row since the last ATH in November 2021, Bitcoin has literally destroyed its final gains since the end of September 2021, returning to $41,000. This value will become the critical level of a chart pattern feared by many investors. After returning to $52,000 by the end of 2021, the bears pushed the BTC price down from $41,000 to $35,000 at the end of January this year. And at the same time, shoulder-head-shoulder (ETE) had just been approved.

As for the main factors of this first wave of amendments, first of all there was the Omicron variant, which raised fears about the possible ineffectiveness of vaccines. After the doubts on this matter passed, we expected a positive reaction from the progress of the cryptocurrency king. But just in case, the Fed froze the mood by saying this In the United States, inflation was no longer so transient. This news, which surprised investors, had its origins on the one hand a significant bearish candle in the week of November 29, 2021, with the price sliding sharply from $60,000 to $41,000-42,000. On the other hand, it foreshadowed announcements of possible monetary tightening at the time.

Finally, compared to the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo curves, BTC’s price position did not cause concern as long as it did not break below the Kumo despite a heavy enough loss for the bulls to digest.

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$35,000 to $46,000 Range – Respite for Bulls!

While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent lightning strikes across asset classes, the king of cryptocurrencies has surprised everyone with its resilience. a tidied up or the horizontal channel is between $35,000 and $46,000. This chart situation gave hope to the bulls, whose price returned to the top of the range several times. Especially since this geopolitical conflict could be an excuse for the Fed not to start monetary tightening.

Unfortunately, the US central bank did not follow the whims of investors. Because inflationary pressures continued even before the conflict between the members of the former Soviet Union. In this context, the March 17 FOMC meeting led to a 25-point interest rate hike that was soon followed by others at high speed.

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A second wave of correction with disastrous results

This is the moment that turns the price of Bitcoin to the dark side It resulted in the destruction of Luna, the sign of Terra. Because it was the decisive catalyst that definitively confirmed the bear run. Graphically, this rage followed a six-week candlestick streak since breaking below $46,000 in early April.

Worse, the results are disastrous with extremely unfavorable signals. First of all, the king of cryptocurrency violently broke out of its range from the bottom, confirming a second wave of correction on the transition. Second, after the last break below $46,000, 11 out of 12 weeks ended in the red until the price stabilized around $20,000 or the 2017 ATH. And last but not least, the price of BTC and Chikou Span finally broke below the Kumo . aka Ichimoku cloud.

Either way, the bears find themselves in a position of strength. It got to the point where the violence of the second wave of corrections exposed the flaws of the asset class, which was not regulated by financial market authorities, and then caused a crisis of confidence among investors.

The technical breakthrough then changes around $20,000

After finding $20,000 worth of support since mid-June, Bitcoin price begins summer technical rally without challenging Kumo again. Because precisely, it stumbled under the $26,000 resistance and struggled to sufficiently recover the losses of the second correction wave last spring.

As the reasons for this start turned out to be fantasy, it took two weeks to trash everything since mid-August, much to the fury of the bulls. Indeed, the latter implied that the Fed would soon end monetary tightening. Besides, the occasion jackson hole symposium, Jerome Powell aggressively set the record straight.

That’s why it’s long tidied up In 2017, ATH followed until FTX filed for bankruptcy.

A third wave of corrections soon?

If Bitcoin crosses $20,000 and sets a new yearly low, the third wave of correction will not be of the magnitude that would signal a true bull surrender. First of all, the price stabilizes around $16,000. And on the other hand, FTX’s bankruptcy will ultimately only be an extension of the flaws seen in the cryptocurrency ecosystem during the Luna scandal. This may explain the timely mini-recovery of the crypto king’s bear run since the last ATH in November 2021.

so to speak The status quo position of BTC and Chikou Span price under Kumo is falling week by week. And to make matters worse, the significant thickness of the future Kumo in weekly units could prevent a rebound trend that could worry the bears.

Assuming the $16,000 is still water, Bitcoin can be recommended to overcome the Tenkan, Kijun and $20,000 in a row with the aim of another resistance around $26,000. Instead, we would continue with the highlights of the current bear run. in which case Breaking $16,000 will bring its price down to $12,000. This represents a 40% decline since the 2017 ATH.

2022 is the year of the Bitcoin bear run. Could 2023 be any different? Leading indicators pointing to a possible recession in both the US and Europe, uncertainty over the rate at which inflation will fall and, above all, the alignment of major central banks on monetary tightening all bode ill for the king of cryptocurrencies. , it remains a prisoner of its association with risk aversion for now.

Not only that, the fall in equity indices in 2022 would only be appetizing. This will raise fears of a new blow to BTC in the event of a downward acceleration in the traditional asset class. With the pole shift from resistance to support not reaching higher than previous highs, his desire to neutralize the bear market may take a back seat.

In order to prevent 2023 from being a gloomy year, it is necessary not only to overcome resistances that allow for a Kumo reconnection, but also to take advantage of key catalysts that will remove doubts about the status of Bitcoin. And as we speak, the time has not yet been determined.

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