December 24, 2022 BTC – Bitcoin is still on a tightrope
The king of cryptocurrency under constant threat of a new correction? – Bitcoin price is still gray ahead of Christmas. Despite moments of hesitation since the second half of this year, its downward trend is hardly weakening. So much so that the bulls find themselves on the ropes with each new descent of the year.
Moreover, the latest technical analysis does not suffer from any controversy. Indeed, at the time of writing, prices for the king of cryptocurrencies have so far failed to break any sustained resistance. This is typical of a bear market that bogs down over time. But despite all this, we can develop a feeling that the bears may settle for it and take a small truce before attacking 2023.
Now let’s look at possible Bitcoin predictions for the penultimate weekend of 2022.
Bitcoin in weekly units – Prices struggle to recover
It is not a scandal to say this Bitcoin is really in trouble. Not that FTX went bankrupt, but prices and Chikou Span Kumo permanently gave way (Ichimoku Cloud) since last May.
And at the risk of disappointing many crypto investors, the king of cryptocurrencies has not been able to move solidly on the Tenkan since the second wave of corrections last spring. As evidence of this, this unfavorable signal appeared in mid-August, early November and last week. Fearing that the intersection of the descending line is invalid.
But given that the $16,000 support is defending itself well, there will be material to limit the damage to prevent BTC from ending 2022 as it started. In this case, A bounce towards $20,000 or the 2017 ATH will give heart to the bulls. Unfortunately, some elements of the Ichimoku could not facilitate the objective of reversing the favorable trend if the current uncertainties in the financial markets did not subside. Needless to say, there is a lot of resistance to overcome.
On the other hand, A break of $16,000 would mark a possible capitulation for the bulls. With the third wave of correction developing significantly towards the $12,000 support. This would represent a potential decline of more than 80% since the November 2021 ATH, bringing us back to the historical benchmarks of the previous two bear runs in 2014 and 2018.
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Bitcoin in daily units – Short-term non-trending prices
In daily units, we bitterly observe that Bitcoin prices have been showing a flat trend since the two big bearish sessions on November 8th and 9th with different fates. On the one hand, they are below Tenkan, Kijun and Kumo. But on the other hand, the bulls will be comforted by the support held at $16,000. No matter what anyone says, bulls and bears neutralize each other.
However, I regret to tell you this graphically BTC prices have been under the Ichimoku cloud since late March – early April. This proves once again that the bulls do not see the end of the tunnel. Fearing that the bear run of the king of cryptocurrencies will not end in the near or medium term.
According to a pessimistic forecast, Bitcoin and Chikou prices will deviate dangerously from the Kumo. Provided $16,000 changes polarity from support to resistance. And vice versa, we need to get above $20,000 to force the bears to buy themselves back. This will primarily coincide with BTC prices moving back above the Kumo.
In summary, there is no disputing the bitcoin bear run since the last ATH in November 2021. For me, the final days before the end of the year wouldn’t be a game changer unless the bulls struggle to send prices higher than 2017. ATH for some reason. And even if that scenario plays out, losses from last summer’s corrective wave are still significant. Which does not beg to blow the wind on the king of cryptocurrencies.
Cryptocurrency investors aren’t the only ones who have to adapt to the environment risk-off The Fed’s monetary tightening increases the cost of capital and dries up some of the liquidity in financial markets. But the prospect of a recession (the extent of which remains unknown) will tend to readjust downwards in the prices of risky assets, especially cryptocurrencies.
Therefore, it would not be a surprise in itself if the current uncertainties in the financial markets accumulate like the bankruptcy of Core Scientific. Especially since the high points continue to be graphically lower than before. Not to mention that the shadow of the future Kumo still reigns in weekly units.
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