Do 75% of Bitcoin (BTC) Buyers Really Lose?
According to a study conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), 73%-81% of cryptocurrency holders will lose money compared to the initial value they invested. Are so many people really red?
Bitcoin investors in the red according to the BIS
Between Terra (Luna) and the fall of the FTX empire, 2022 has been a bloody year for the cryptocurrency market. Moreover, Bitcoin (BTC) price has undergone a correction of about 76% since reaching its peak in November 2021.
As a result, according to a recent study published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Between 73% and 81% of investors would have lost money on their cryptocurrency purchases.
In other words, three-quarters of investors acquired crypto-assets whose current value was lower than their original purchase price:
“Indeed, simple simulations show that at the time of writing this report, 73-81% of users have lost money on cryptocurrency investments. »
In parallel, The BIS estimates that 75% of Bitcoin (BTC) holders suffered when its price stagnated around $20,000.. And today, with 1 BTC close to $16,000, the proportion of investors reported as losses is likely to increase further.
Recall that the BRI is an established authority bank of central banks : facilitates dialogue and research between different institutions globally.
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But if we analyze the research data in depth, some results appear inaccurate.
The data collected by the Bank for International Settlements mainly comes from Sensor Tower and CryptoCompare.
Sensor Tower has collected various statistics on mobile cryptocurrency exchange downloads. This data was collected in more than 90 countries between 2015 and 2022.
For its part, CryptoCompare focused on listing the various available exchanges.
Having information at hand, BRI took two guesses to find :
- on the one hand, the number of investors in loss or profit;
- on the other hand, the amount related to losses and profits made by investors.
As for the first estimates, using the data provided by the two companies, Here is the comment made by the financial institution :
“We find that 73% of users download apps [d’exchange de cryptomonnaie] when the price of bitcoin was above $20,000, it was higher than the price of bitcoin in October 2022 [20 000$]. If these users had invested in bitcoin the same day they downloaded the cryptocurrency exchange, they would have lost their initial investment. »
In addition to, The conclusion drawn by BRI is based on hypothetical behavior.
No available data claims that a user bought Bitcoin on a cryptocurrency exchange on the same day they downloaded it. Besides, we can mention the conditional use to confirm the inaccuracy of the result obtained.
Similarly, for the second evaluation, this is what we can read :
“Assuming that every new user buys $100 worth of bitcoins the first month they download the app, as well as every subsequent month, 81% of users would have lost money. »
This time the estimate is based on a different behavior of the investor : instead of investing once, the user smoothes his investment by investing the same amount of Bitcoin (BTC) every month.
However, the advanced result remains the result of the evaluation: it does not represent investors’ behavior or losses and gains.
As a result, the two results claimed by the BIS are only representative of the recent hype surrounding Bitcoin (BTC), which has seen its price fall since 2022.
Certainly, new investors have experienced losses in recent months. However, the research is not accurate and rigorous enough to determine the exact percentage of investors who have declared losses In Bitcoin (BTC) purchases.
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