Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis – BTC and ETH Price Monday 07 November 2022
And if we witness a real change in the trend. Indeed, the Dollar Index (DXY) marking time since late September favored fireworks in riskier asset classes in October. In this sense, Bitcoin and Ethereum revived from $20,000 and $1,400, respectively, to the delight of cryptocurrency investors.
From there, given that most of the bear markets will be behind since their last ATH in November 2021, the hurdles to overcome are mounting. As in August and September, at the risk of a major disappointment again. Even if their lowest performance of the year is not considered.
And while writing, the top two digital currencies are in a state of limbo, where the lack of central bank liquidity is still felt. At any rate, in the context of a market full of uncertainties, let’s review their technical analysis in weekly units to predict various future scenarios.
Bitcoin in Weekly Units – On the Way to Weekly MM30?
The last time Bitcoin came into contact with its 30-week moving average (30MM weekly), it ended in a huge correction wave that caused its market capitalization to collapse by almost 64%. The fact that the prices are currently approaching it will be regarded as good news. But beware the intransigence of Weinstein’s Phase 4, which will destroy any hopes of the beginning of a trend reversal.
Because precisely, the MM30 is tracking a weekly decline below resistances or old supports. Assuming the rebound continues, investors shouldn’t get too excited. As we have repeated many times, The fact that the price of a base that will break above a major moving average that is itself in a downtrend can often create a false buy signal.
In particular, the current period of tension in the financial markets will allow it to take countermeasures against buyers. So, if BTC prices finally rejoin the $26,000 resistance, we may learn more about the quality of the rebound from the week of October 24.
The first scenario will put sellers under pressure Potential double bottom at $26,000. In this case, Bitcoin may rise to the $30,000-$35,000 price zone. As for the second scenario, A break of $20,000 (or the ATH of 2017) will lead us to the birth of the third correction wave towards the $12,000 support. Given the current weak year in the cryptocurrency market, this would not be unreasonable.
Ethereum in weekly units – The intersection of the descending line has not yet been confirmed
Although Ethereum has largely bounced back from the $1,400 (or 2018 ATH) support, it is currently colliding below the weekly 30-MA and $1,700 resistance. And at the same time, the intersection of the descending line is not yet recorded. So once again the intransigence of Weinstein’s stage 4, which many investors underestimated.
By the way the last two candles on weekly units could possibly indicate a struggle for ETH prices to rise above $1,700. Recall that this critical level produced two previous bounces, including a hidden bounce near $2,000. If we limit ourselves to the graphical aspect, Ethereum can neutralize the bear market since the last ATH in November 2021. Provided it reaches a higher point than last August.
Prices should be above $2000 in this assumption. This would confirm the crossing of the descending line and $1,700. Two favorable technical signals that will pave the way to $2300i.e. last down tidy or horizontal channel. Conversely, a third failure below $1,700 would trigger a pullback around the 2017 ATH. However, if the latter breaks, prices could re-enter the year’s lows, not far from the $1,000 support.
BTC and ETH – Will Sellers Panic?
October seems to bring hope for cryptocurrencies. However, the recovery of Bitcoin and Ethereum must be seen in context. First of all, they benefited from the drop in DXY, which is itself in a major uptrend. On the other hand, despite Jerome Powell’s statements that he will not go in the direction of a change in monetary policy, investors continue to oppose the Fed.
But this is enough for the moment to make the sellers questionable. From there, DXY will need to break 110 support for some panic. From there, hopes to see BTC and ETH rise by the end of the year will gain traction. Not only that, but we were able to recover some of the losses caused by the corrective wave last spring. But better, favorable technical signals will be confirmed enough.
However, the possibility that inflation will not decrease significantly should not be ruled out. Because we found it beforesignificant commodity consolidation did not have the expected impact on earlier consumer price figures in both the US and Europe.
Therefore, The Fed and ECB may raise key interest rates further despite the onset of a potential recession. And in the meantime, the renewed shape of Brent or WTI oil prices will not help their job in fighting inflation. In this case, we fear that the recent rally in all asset classes will turn into another bear rally or bullish rally in a major downtrend.
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